Distribution shift (DS) may have two levels: the distribution itself changes, and the support (i.e., the set where the probability density is non-zero) also changes. When considering the support change between the training and test distributions, there can be four cases: (i) they exactly match; (ii) the training support is wider (and thus covers the test support); (iii) the test support is wider; (iv) they partially overlap. Existing methods are good at cases (i) and (ii), while cases (iii) and (iv) are more common nowadays but still under-explored. In this paper, we generalize importance weighting (IW), a golden solver for cases (i) and (ii), to a universal solver for all cases. Specifically, we first investigate why IW might fail in cases (iii) and (iv); based on the findings, we propose generalized IW (GIW) that could handle cases (iii) and (iv) and would reduce to IW in cases (i) and (ii). In GIW, the test support is split into an in-training (IT) part and an out-of-training (OOT) part, and the expected risk is decomposed into a weighted classification term over the IT part and a standard classification term over the OOT part, which guarantees the risk consistency of GIW. Then, the implementation of GIW consists of three components: (a) the split of validation data is carried out by the one-class support vector machine, (b) the first term of the empirical risk can be handled by any IW algorithm given training data and IT validation data, and (c) the second term just involves OOT validation data. Experiments demonstrate that GIW is a universal solver for DS problems, outperforming IW methods in cases (iii) and (iv).

Machine Learning (ML) models are extensively used in various applications due to their significant advantages over traditional learning methods. However, the developed ML models often underperform when deployed in the real world due to the well-known distribution shift problem. This problem can lead to a catastrophic outcomes when these decision-making systems have to operate in high-risk applications. Many researchers have previously studied this problem in ML, known as distribution shift problem, using statistical techniques (such as Kullback-Leibler, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, Wasserstein distance, etc.) to quantify the distribution shift. In this letter, we show that using Characteristic Function (CF) as a frequency domain approach is a powerful alternative for measuring the distribution shift in high-dimensional space and for domain adaptation.

Distribution shift (DS) may have two levels: the distribution itself changes, and the support (i.e., the set where the probability density is non-zero) also changes. When considering the support change between the training and test distributions, there can be four cases: (i) they exactly match; (ii) the training support is wider (and thus covers the test support); (iii) the test support is wider; (iv) they partially overlap. Existing methods are good at cases (i) and (ii), while cases (iii) and (iv) are more common nowadays but still under-explored. In this paper, we generalize importance weighting (IW), a golden solver for cases (i) and (ii), to a universal solver for all cases. Specifically, we first investigate why IW might fail in cases (iii) and (iv); based on the findings, we propose generalized IW (GIW) that could handle cases (iii) and (iv) and would reduce to IW in cases (i) and (ii).

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capability in numerous tasks and applications. However, fine-tuning LLMs using high-quality datasets under external supervision remains prohibitively expensive. In response, LLM self-improvement approaches have been vibrantly developed recently. The typical paradigm of LLM self-improvement involves training LLM on self-generated data, part of which may be detrimental and should be filtered out due to the unstable data quality. While current works primarily employs filtering strategies based on answer correctness, in this paper, we demonstrate that filtering out correct but with high distribution shift extent (DSE) samples could also benefit the results of self-improvement. Given that the actual sample distribution is usually inaccessible, we propose a new metric called DS weight to approximate DSE, inspired by the Importance Weighting methods. Consequently, we integrate DS weight with self-consistency to comprehensively filter the self-generated samples and fine-tune the language model. Experiments show that with only a tiny valid set (up to 5\% size of the training set) to compute DS weight, our approach can notably promote the reasoning ability of current LLM self-improvement methods. The resulting performance is on par with methods that rely on external supervision from pre-trained reward models.

This paper studies the problem of distribution shifts on non-homophilous graphs. Mosting existing graph neural network methods rely on the homophilous assumption that nodes from the same class are more likely to be linked. However, such assumptions of homophily do not always hold in real-world graphs, which leads to more complex distribution shifts unaccounted for in previous methods. The distribution shifts of neighborhood patterns are much more diverse on non-homophilous graphs. We propose a novel Invariant Neighborhood Pattern Learning (INPL) to alleviate the distribution shifts problem on non-homophilous graphs. Specifically, we propose the Adaptive Neighborhood Propagation (ANP) module to capture the adaptive neighborhood information, which could alleviate the neighborhood pattern distribution shifts problem on non-homophilous graphs. We propose Invariant Non-Homophilous Graph Learning (INHGL) module to constrain the ANP and learn invariant graph representation on non-homophilous graphs. Extensive experimental results on real-world non-homophilous graphs show that INPL could achieve state-of-the-art performance for learning on large non-homophilous graphs.

Predicting the future trajectories of nearby objects plays a pivotal role in Robotics and Automation such as autonomous driving. While learning-based trajectory prediction methods have achieved remarkable performance on public benchmarks, the generalization ability of these approaches remains questionable. The poor generalizability on unseen domains, a well-recognized defect of data-driven approaches, can potentially harm the real-world performance of trajectory prediction models. We are thus motivated to improve generalization ability of models instead of merely pursuing high accuracy on average. Due to the lack of benchmarks for quantifying the generalization ability of trajectory predictors, we first construct a new benchmark called argoverse-shift, where the data distributions of domains are significantly different. Using this benchmark for evaluation, we identify that the domain shift problem seriously hinders the generalization of trajectory predictors since state-of-the-art approaches suffer from severe performance degradation when facing those out-of-distribution scenes. To enhance the robustness of models against domain shift problems, we propose a plug-and-play strategy for domain normalization in trajectory prediction. Our strategy utilizes the Frenet coordinate frame for modeling and can effectively narrow the domain gap of different scenes caused by the variety of road geometry and topology. Experiments show that our strategy noticeably boosts the prediction performance of the state-of-the-art in domains that were previously unseen to the models, thereby improving the generalization ability of data-driven trajectory prediction methods.

Distribution shifts are characterized by differences between the training and test data distributions. They can significantly reduce the accuracy of machine learning models deployed in real-world scenarios. This paper explores the distribution shift problem when classifying pollen grains from microscopic images collected in the wild with a low-cost camera sensor. We leverage the domain knowledge that geometric features are highly important for accurate pollen identification and introduce two novel geometric image augmentation techniques to significantly narrow the accuracy gap between the model performance on the train and test datasets. In particular, we show that Tenengrad and ImageToSketch filters are highly effective to balance the shape and texture information while leaving out unimportant details that may confuse the model. Extensive evaluations on various model architectures demonstrate a consistent improvement of the model generalization to field data of up to 14% achieved by the geometric augmentation techniques when compared to a wide range of standard image augmentations. The approach is validated through an ablation study using pollen hydration tests to recover the shape of dry pollen grains. The proposed geometric augmentations also receive the highest scores according to the affinity and diversity measures from the literature.

Distribution shift (DS) may have two levels: the distribution itself changes, and the support (i.e., the set where the probability density is non-zero) also changes. When considering the support change between the training and test distributions, there can be four cases: (i) they exactly match; (ii) the training support is wider (and thus covers the test support); (iii) the test support is wider; (iv) they partially overlap. Existing methods are good at cases (i) and (ii), while cases (iii) and (iv) are more common nowadays but still under-explored. In this paper, we generalize importance weighting (IW), a golden solver for cases (i) and (ii), to a universal solver for all cases. Specifically, we first investigate why IW might fail in cases (iii) and (iv); based on the findings, we propose generalized IW (GIW) that could handle cases (iii) and (iv) and would reduce to IW in cases (i) and (ii). In GIW, the test support is split into an in-training (IT) part and an out-of-training (OOT) part, and the expected risk is decomposed into a weighted classification term over the IT part and a standard classification term over the OOT part, which guarantees the risk consistency of GIW. Then, the implementation of GIW consists of three components: (a) the split of validation data is carried out by the one-class support vector machine, (b) the first term of the empirical risk can be handled by any IW algorithm given training data and IT validation data, and (c) the second term just involves OOT validation data. Experiments demonstrate that GIW is a universal solver for DS problems, outperforming IW methods in cases (iii) and (iv).

Time series forecasting has widespread applications in urban life ranging from air quality monitoring to traffic analysis. However, accurate time series forecasting is challenging because real-world time series suffer from the distribution shift problem, where their statistical properties change over time. Despite extensive solutions to distribution shifts in domain adaptation or generalization, they fail to function effectively in unknown, constantly-changing distribution shifts, which are common in time series. In this paper, we propose Hyper Time- Series Forecasting (HTSF), a hypernetwork-based framework for accurate time series forecasting under distribution shift. HTSF jointly learns the time-varying distributions and the corresponding forecasting models in an end-to-end fashion. Specifically, HTSF exploits the hyper layers to learn the best characterization of the distribution shifts, generating the model parameters for the main layers to make accurate predictions. We implement HTSF as an extensible framework that can incorporate diverse time series forecasting models such as RNNs and Transformers. Extensive experiments on 9 benchmarks demonstrate that HTSF achieves state-of-the-art performances.